This week’s Kantar data release showed the Retail Market is still in growth with the 12 weeks ended 18^th April 2021 showing a ‘year on year’ growth of 5.7%. However, this was down on previous growth number.

On the recent Kantar presentation at the BFFF Business Conference, Carol Redman, Business Unit Director, identified that the market had in fact declined by 5.9% in the previous 4 weeks (to 21^st March 2021) period.

Easter, however, seems to have pushed the market back into growth over the  last 4-week period to +6.5%. Separate IRI data showed that Easter was significantly above Easter last year with Total Grocery sales at +15.8%.

On the Kantar presentation, at the BFFF Business Conference, they identified that shopping habits were beginning to revert back to pre-Pandemic with an increase in the frequency of shopping trips and a reduction in basket size. Again, the Kantar data released this week also noted this trend was continuing.

Older shoppers, who have now largely been vaccinated, are now returning to grocery shopping in store. This showed Discounters attracting higher percentages of the over 55 and 65 age groups.

This is also having an effect on the Online Markets with ‘year on year’ growth in the 4 weeks to 18^th April being half the level in the 4 weeks ended 21^st March.

It is clear that as Food Service re-opens that Total Retail Grocery sales will weaken. If we look back at the ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ promotion in 2020 the total 12-week Grocery Sales weakened significantly so we anticipate that negative growth will be the norm through the rest of 2021. Plus as Roger Martin Fagg stated in his presentation at the BFFF conference consumers have £180bn in accidental savings, he predicted Food Service could be a major beneficiary as this money is spent

If members missed the Kantar or Roger Martins Fagg’s presentations at the Business Conference, then please contact Siobhan on how to access the full presentation.